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Expert debate with KB on COVID-19 and its impact on the Czech economy and financial markets

Komerční banka continuously and carefully monitors and evaluates the situation concerning the spread of coronavirus. On Friday the 3rd April 2020, the economic and financial impact of coronavirus on the Czech and global market has been discussed during a webinar hosted by KB’s experts. For this online event of the French Czech Chamber of Commerce, more than 50 participants were present.

What can we learn from this webinar?

 

The COVID-19 crisis has a global impact

 

  • The rise of COVID-19 outside China has severely impacted stock markets and has created a worldwide panic. A strong reaction of world markets and a shift towards safe assets (US government bonds, etc..) have been observed.
  • Service orientated countries (Spain, USA, GB, Italy) will be hit more severely than industrial countries (Germany, China).
  • During the lockdown and quarantine, the production is generally around 60% of its potential - in China nowadays the production went back to “normal” (around 90% of its potential). If the quarantine will last less than 6 months, there is a strong chance that companies will survive and the demand will grow strongly afterwards.

 

The Czech Republic will not be spared

 

  • Czech economy is very industrial country, but nevertheless services represent around 60% of Czech GDP.
  • KB’s experts expect in their base case scenario that the restrictive measures in Czech Republic will be gradually removed after 6-8 weeks, based on experiences from China and from Asia in general.
  • Economy will decline by 6,5%, unemployment will grow up to 7 % (creating a recession on the labour market), inflation will hit 4% in the near-term (increased by a weak CZK) and decline later in the year and CZK should be capped around 28 CZK/EUR and gradually moving to stronger levels within the rest of 2020 according to the predictions of Komerční banka.

 

Special thanks to KB’s speakers for providing their expertise. You can consult KB’s offers during crisis on their website: https://www.kb.cz/en/